COVID Market
Four years ago today, a Friday, I was speeding out of Baltimore, on my way to New Orleans. My daughter was a junior at Tulane University. Along with the rest of the world, it was shutting down because of COVID. Students had till Sunday to abandon ship.
I did the math and even with cat naps on the side of the road, I averaged nearly 40 mph over the 1,100 miles.
The streets of New Orleans were deserted until you got close to the Tulane campus. Kids were waiting on the sidewalks by the dorms with their belongings stuffed in black plastic bags. Parents pulled up, threw the bags in their cars, and hit the bricks…
I wasn’t in New Orleans for more than an hour before my girl and I were back on the road to Baltimore.
I’ll never forget driving through the Blue Ridge mountains of western Virginia. Traffic was actually pretty heavy. As we passed other cars, you could see a kind of camaraderie on the drivers’ faces – we were all making the same desperate trek to familiar destinations that we hoped – prayed – were also safe ones.
Loneliness was already setting in.
I know it’s become very popular to play down the emotions of that time. Nobody likes to admit when we’re scared, that we don’t know what to do…that we might be powerless…
Today I won’t begrudge anyone’s response. If eschewing masks and vaccines helped you take back some power, I’m ok with that. If masking and isolating helped you feel safe, I’m ok with that too.
We’ve obviously learned a lot about COVID. Looking back, it’s pretty easy to say that we overreacted. But when hospitals went from empty to overflowing with COVID patients in just a few weeks, it was damn scary. The subtext of the “China Virus” as some kind of bio-attack seemed pretty plausible, and maybe still does…
My AI Trading Agent
I use an AI-powered software program to assist my trading. I call it my “trading agent” because it is powerful enough to sift through 100 years of S&P 500 data and generate probabilities for what the index will do next…
We’ve seen a little weakness for stocks this week. So let me show you what my AI trading agent is forecasting over the next 10 days, from March 16 to March 23:
The forecast says the odds for a rally are 50%. Not very helpful. But the expected gain for the S&P 500 is negative -1.3%. That suggests a move lower.
Now this particular forecast is based on 10 years of data. 4 years ago, the S&P 500 suffered an historic sell-off during the current period. No doubt the massive COVID sell-off is affecting the data…
So if we look past the influence that the COVID sell-off had, the stats look good over the next month:
And if we broaden the time frame for data to 25 years (instead of our usual 10-year view) to minimize the effect of the COVID sell-off, the stats look very good through April 27:
The really cool thing about this AI algorithm is that it can be applied individually to every stock on the S&P 500.
I recently used data from this AI algorithm to turn a 122% profit from Tesla’s recent plunge lower.
But now, with the market poised for a rally, my AI Trading Agent has pinpointed one stock that is likely to move 10% higher over the next few weeks. That’s easily a big enough move to double your money on a simple options trade.
Briton Ryle
Chief Investment Strategist
Pro Trader Today
brit.ryle@protradertoday.com
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