2023 predictions: How Did I Do?
The Past is Prologue
Hello Pro Traders,
Allow me to introduce myself, my name is Christian DeHaemer. I’ve been writing about Wall Street and making money on stocks for over 25 years. I’ve written thousands of articles, millions of words, co-authored a couple of books and traded countless stocks over the years.
I’ve survived and even flourished through three “once in a lifetime” market crashes making millions for myself and perhaps hundreds of millions for my readers on the subsequent bounce backs.
My good friends Dave and Brit have invited me to write for this remarkable publication and embark on another great adventure with Protrader Today. For those who know me I thank you for your continued readership, and for those that don’t I hope you’ll find my insight rewarding and profitable.
Last Year Prognostications
It is that time of year where I go over last year’s predictions about 2023 and make bold new ones for 2024. If you are like me you know the way to build consistent wealth is to get the major themes correct and ride along with the wind at your back. The trick of course, is knowing when to follow the trend and when to be a contrarian.
- Last year my first prediction was that the car market would crash due to increased supply and higher interest rates. I expected prices would fall 10% -20%.
I was right in calling the trend but wrong in the degree of the correction. The CarGurus used car price index was down 3.58% for the year. But Van prices fell 11.69% as the Covid surge in van life hit the curb. New car prices are down 3.5% for the year.
- I predicted that housing would hold up better than expected. I wrote, “This isn’t 2008. People who have owned homes for more than 18 months have high credit ratings, record equity, and low mortgage rates. Home prices will hold up, but sales will decline.”
This is what happened. Home sales declined to 3.79 million units and the average price went up to $398,000. I was right again.
- I predicted that rent inflation would ease as record multifamily housing construction is completed.
According to Zillow rent has decreased by $95 this year to an average $2,000. Another win.
- I wrote that deglobalization and reshoring would be big with China the loser and Mexico the big winner.
Mexico’s GDP growth in the first half of 2023 was 3.7%. Other indicators such as manufacturing, employment and the peso were all up. China’s GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter as it continues to rebound from the Covid disruptions. Still the GDP growth trend is down from 6% pre Covid and 10% a decade ago. Furthermore, real estate price drops in China have caused real hardship for the middle class.
- I predicted that dry bulk shipping would have a good year as China reopened.
This happened as the Baltic Dry Index is up 48% this year. Another win.
- I predicted that governments around the world will try to implement central digital currency. This will lead to social control via ratings and will be tied into travel and banking.
There are 130 countries interested in CBDCs and 60 are in advanced stages with pilot programs. So, this isn’t true quite yet. Let’s call it a tie.
- I predicted that after a furious battle in the spring, Ukraine and Russia would negotiate a peace deal.
This hasn’t happened but seems to be getting closer. A loss.
- 2023 will be the year of AI. ChatGPT will change the way we write. Cheating in school will become a huge problem.
I read AI articles all the time and they are universally bad and easy to spot. Writing has changed. As far as cheating in School this prediction was a wash. Apparently most students cheat in some way so the numbers didn’t go up dramatically and the school system adapted.
- I predicted that Microsoft would leverage this AI and make serious inroads in Google’s search monopoly.
This didn’t happen. Bing is still bad.
- Vladimir Putin will be assassinated, which will throw the world’s largest country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal into chaos, much like what happened in Libya and Iraq.
Vlad is still alive and kicking. This was wrong.
- TikTok will be banned in the U.S. and Canada for being a tool for Chinese espionage.
Nope, it didn’t happen. We aren’t even hearing about this anymore. Perhaps there were campaign contributions from CCP subsidiaries.
- My biggest macro call was “Overall, 2023 will be a year of two halves. In the first part, there will be high interest rates in the U.S., high inflation, and low equity prices. In the second half of the year, people will start to talk about easing rates and high unemployment. You should expect energy prices to top out in mid-February and stocks to bottom in March or April.”
The S&P500 did hit a low of 3,764.49 on March 13, 2023. I nailed that one. Energy did top out on January 23 before hitting a bottom at the end of June and climbing to the mid-$90s in September. It has since sold off again.
It looks like I got the big predictions correct and the longevity of dictators incorrect. On Thursday I will tell you how 2024 will shape up and where you want to put your money for the most reward.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Pro Trader Today
hammer@protradertoday.com
